One thousand people are streaming into Florida every day. Three Florida cities rank among the top ten nationwide in percentage growth from April 2000 to July 2004 among cities over 100,000 population. Miramar (Broward County) grew by 39.5%, Port St. Lucie (St. Lucie County) by 33.4%, and Cape Coral (Lee County) by 25.1%.

Florida's estimated 2004 population by the U.S. Census Bureau was 17,397,161, a 4.7% increase over 2003, while the United States grew by 3.8%.*

Domestic migration plus international migration are causing unsustainable demands on our ground water, our rural land and forests and on our rivers and coastal shores. Schools, roads, utilities and social services are heavily impacted lowering our quality of life. Our elected officials need a reality check!

"Pogo: We has met the enemy... and they is us."­ Walt Kelly, 1901-1963, American Cartoonist

*NOTE: a 1% growth rate doubles a population in 72 years, a 2% growth in 36 years, a 3% growth in 24 years.

POPULATION AND URBAN LAND IN FLORIDA PROJECTED TO DOUBLE IN 50 YEARS

Leadership and Long-Term Planning Are Needed to Protect Florida's Environment and Quality of Life

December 6, 2006. 1000 Friends of Florida today released two studies that define the growth management challenges facing Florida, a state whose population is projected to double to 36 million by 2060. The first study, entitled Florida 2060: A Population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida, projects the amount of urbanized land in the State of Florida will double by 2060, based on current development patterns. A companion study, entitled A Time for Leadership: Growth Management and Florida 2060, determined that the governor, state legislators, and citizens can change the course of development in Florida through deliberate growth leadership. A copy of the Executive Summary is attached, and the full studies, regional summary sheets and other materials are available at <http://1000fof.org/planning/2060.asp.>

"Together, these studies provide a wake-up call for every Florida resident, business and elected official," said Charles Pattison, Executive Director of 1000 Friends of Florida, the state's leading growth management advocate. "A tidal wave of growth is headed our way, and we need proactive leadership and long-term, large-scale planning to ensure we protect our environment and quality of life. We understand the scope of the challenge before us - now is the time for us plan intelligently for the next fifty plus years."

"Florida has been one of the fastest growing states in the country for seven decades," said Peter S. Rummell, chairman and CEO of the St. Joe Company, Florida's largest private landowner. "These studies confirm two things. Over the next fifty years, we can expect Florida to continue to be one of our nation's fastest growing states. And second, we have the opportunity to prepare, to learn from our mistakes - and to learn from what we've done right. We can enact sensible, sustainable development strategies that accommodate growth while protecting the environment and the things that make Florida special."

"These studies make clear that, as growth in the state accelerates, agricultural land will continue to be in the path of development," said Joseph Duda, President and CEO of A. Duda and Sons, one of Florida's leading agribusinesses. "Agriculture is a cornerstone of the Florida economy, and farmers and ranchers contribute significantly to the stewardship of the state's land, wildlife and natural resources. We must develop a visionary strategy that maintains agriculture's stewardship role while providing incentives for those who elect to keep their land in agriculture."

Florida 2060: A Population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida, was prepared by the University of Florida's GeoPlan Center. It projects that if current development patterns continue, roughly seven million additional acres of Florida land will be converted from rural to urban uses. This will include approximately 2.7 million acres agricultural lands and another 2.7 million acres of native habitat. Additionally, a "sea of urbanization" will surround much of today's protected conservation lands unless alternative development patterns are promoted.

According to the study, if current development patterns continue numerous counties will "build out" by 2060 or before, and many other counties will convert from rural to urban. Among the study's specific findings:

• The central Florida region will experience "explosive" growth, with continuous urban development from Ocala to Sebring, and St. Petersburg to Daytona Beach. The study projects that the I-75 and I-4 corridors will be fully developed by 2060.
• Seminole, Orange, Brevard, Indian River, Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Manatee counties are expected to build out in the period from 2020 to 2040. The study projects population growth will spill into the surrounding counties and virtually all the natural systems and wildlife corridors in this region will be fragmented, if not replaced, by urban development.
• Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties are expected to build out before 2060, causing an almost continuous band of urban development along the southwest Florida coast. The study projects that population growth will spillover into adjacent inland counties.
• DeSoto, Hendry and Glades counties are expected to experience the most dramatic transformation over the next fifty years as they go from largely rural to largely urban in character. The result will be an almost continuous urban strip linking Ft. Myers to West Palm Beach.
• Southeast Florida will become mostly urbanized, with the exception of some urban lands north and south of Lake Okeechobee.
• The study projects that all vacant land in the Keys will be consumed by development by 2060, including lands not necessarily accessible by automobile.
• Duval County is projected to be completely built out sometime after 2040, and by 2060 its population is anticipated to spill out into Nassau, Clay, St. Johns and Baker counties, forever changing their rural character.
• Only the Panhandle and Big Bend are projected to retain significant areas of open space, and this is only if current growth and development patterns continue.

The companion study, entitled A Time for Leadership: Growth Management and Florida 2060 outlines steps that need to be taken today to protect the environment and quality of life while accommodating growth. The study calls for a shift to "growth leadership" in Florida - a proactive approach to plan for the future that encourages large-scale, long-term planning and development that is both sustainable and environmentally friendly.

Prepared by the Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development at the Georgia Institute of Technology, A Time for Leadership notes that the governor, state legislators, and citizens can change the course of development in Florida through deliberate growth leadership. Overarching recommendations include:

• Expand Florida Forever. Accelerate and expand this highly successful natural-lands acquisition program to permanently protect not only natural lands and open and recreation space, but also agricultural and forestry lands.
• Adopt New Policy on Conversion of Rural Lands to Urban Use. New public policy should mandate that the conversion of rural land to urban density only be allowed in return for significant public benefit, especially the preservation of natural lands, open space, and agricultural lands.
• Create a 100-Year Legacy Plan. The statewide plan should identify the lands for permanent protection from development and lands that are appropriate for development and redevelopment. All state funding should be consistent with the Legacy Plan.
• Identify Leaders and Galvanize Support. Identify champions to organize and advocate for Florida's vision and plans. Such leadership must come from a broad cross section of Floridians who believe that our future is far too important to just let it happen.

"We must define a new path to the future," said 1000 Friends' Vice President Tim Jackson, a leader in producing the studies. "We must all work together to find a way to accommodate growth while keeping Florida the special place it has been. We all have a stake in protecting our quality of life. We owe it to our children and future generations of Floridians."

"An alarm bell has been sounded," said Vicki Tschinkel, Florida Director of The Nature Conservancy. "But that alarm should be a call for realistic large-scale planning, rather than platitudes about slowing growth. The future has not yet been written. We can still choose the kind of place Florida will be in fifty years. But we are going to have to work together to make it the special place we all want it to be."

Funding for Florida 2060 and A Time for Leadership was provided through generous donations by The St. Joe Company, The Nature Conservancy, A. Duda and Sons, Glatting Jackson, Robert Parks, Fishkind Associates, and WilsonMiller.

Established in 1986, 1000 Friends of Florida works to protect natural areas, fight urban sprawl, promote sensible development patterns, and provide affordable housing. Above all, it strives to give citizens the tools to keep Florida's communities livable. For more information on 1000 Friends, including the full studies and graphics, please visit <http://www.1000friendsofflorida.org>.

Lesley Blackner's response:

Is it not worth noting who paid for this study?

Funding for Florida 2060 and A Time for Leadership was provided through generous donations by The St. Joe Company, The Nature Conservancy, A. Duda and Sons, Glatting Jackson, Robert Parks, Fishkind Associates, and WilsonMiller.

As we all know, "Duda Happens" as does St. Joe, and then Fishkind, Glatting Jackson and WilsonMiller are all there to make sure that it indeed, it does happen.

Friends, Growth is a Political Decision, not simply a force of nature. I invite you to "think out of the box" for a change:

Viewpoint.

Planning Oct , 2003

For most of this nation's history, growth has been constant and desirable. And for the most part, planners accept the need to accommodate expected population gains--until local residents cry "halt," as they have done regularly in California since the early 1960s. In Florida, signatures are being gathered for the Hometown Democracy Amendment, a statewide initiative that would require voter approval of comprehensive plan amendments. Over the last decades, local activists in other parts of the country have also resisted and redirected growth by establishing urban growth boundaries, creating transferable development rights programs, and buying up open space. Recalls and initiatives reflect democracy in action. They also put planners in a quandary as they seek to answer: Who do we plan for, existing voters or future residents?

While growth is still sought in many areas, others are in a phase that I call "post-growth." These areas are content with buildout or a modest growth rate (up to one percent a year). Post-growth areas usually have high and rising housing prices, don't want to be part of a commuter shed for neighboring cities, and may have amenities they are trying to protect, such as active agriculture and open space.

Clearly, the "growth is good" paradigm is no longer a given, and elected officials perceived as beholden to the bankers and developers are increasingly coming under attack, If we are not careful, the planning profession itself could be labeled as a mouthpiece for builders. In part that's because our population projections tend to reflect past land-use policies and market demand. And our planning policies have largely met market demand, resulting in communities that sprawl outward in ever-increasing galaxies of auto-oriented subdivisions and edge cities.

We were generally doing what our constituents wanted. Meanwhile, however, the growth system, fed by all sorts of subsidies, created its own nemesis, the residents of these sprawling subdivisions, who often use the initiative process.

That's not to say that we don't need to grow. The U.S. will continue to add population for far more than the 20-year horizons for which we are now planning. Many of the new people will decide to live in desirable, already urbanized areas, a boon for infill advocates but not necessarily for existing residents. If you are in an area that's looking for growth, and if you have taken into account all the usual planning issues, go for it.

How do we plan in post-growth areas? It's tough and uncomfortable. Post-growth communities are trading the known problems that come with growth for the less-known consequences of post growth: sustained regional high housing costs, out-migration of some jobs, crowding, calls for rent control, and wage pressures.

As a starting point, I offer six considerations: 1. Honor your community's own past general plans and planning promises. 2. Accept that in some areas, you will never be able to build enough housing to meet demand. 3. Understand that population projections express mostly market wants, not needs. 4. Recognize that without strong regional or state policies, every community has a right to set its own market selling price. 5. Understand that post-growth has its own set of planning issues, which are different but not necessarily worse than issues related to more growth. 6. Give post-growth a chance as a realistic alternative to planning for continued growth.

Finally, here's a paradox: Three decades ago, under the Nixon administration, a national task force on Population and the American Future concluded after two years of study that it had "not found any convincing economic argument for continued population growth." That was 88 million people ago.

California's recall initiative is related to the ongoing debate about planning for growth, says Chris Williamson, AICP, a research associate professor at the University of Southern California and a consultant with the Solimar Research Group in Ventura.

© COPYRIGHT 2003 American Planning Association

IMMIGRATION DATA FOR FLORIDA
We are obliged to the Federation for American Immigration Reform web site for the following data

Summary Demographic State Data (and Source)

Population (2004 Census Bureau estimate):	17,397,161
Population (2000 Census):	15,982,378
Foreign-Born Population (2003 CB estimate):	2,995,400
Foreign-Born Population (2000 Census):	2,670,828
Share Foreign-Born (2003):	17.6%
Share Foreign-Born (2000):	16.7%
Immigrant Stock* (2000 CB estimate):	4,637,000
Share Immigrant Stock (2000 estimate): *defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as immigrants and first generation children of immigrants.	29.0%
Naturalized U.S. Citizens (2000 Census):	1,207,502
Share Naturalized (2000 estimate):	45.2%
Legal Immigrant Admission  (INS 1993-2002):	754,692
Refugee Admission  (2001 HHS):	16,775
Illegal Alien Population (CIS 2005):	780,000
Projected Population - 2025 [if population growth rates of 1990-2000 continue] (2001 FAIR):	27,100,400

MENU OF FLORIDA IMMIGRATION DATA RESOURCES

• General Information (below)
• Census Bureau Data - the state's population history, present and future.
• Legal Immigrants - details on the more than 761,000 post-1990 immigrants.
• Social Issues - welfare, health care, education, crime, etc.
• Illegal Immigrants - over 337,000 illegal aliens and growing.
• Public Opinion Poll Data (below)
• Refugee Settlement (below)
• State Congressional Delegation Voting Record (below)

GENERAL INFORMATION
Florida has the third-largest immigrant population in the United States (after California and New York), and the fourth-largest immigrant population share of its total population (after the above two states and Hawaii). More than one of every eight of its residents is foreign born. About one in every eleven immigrants in the United States lives in Florida.

The majority of Florida's immigrants comes from the Caribbean basin. Mexico plays a minor role in this settlement pattern. The immigrant population is much more likely to be living in poverty (22.7%) than the native born (15%).

Florida receives federal assistance to help it defray the costs of the incarcerated criminal alien population in the state and to help it pay the welfare benefits that the state had to pay after the 1986 amnesty for illegal aliens. However, the federal funding falls far short of the costs of immigrants to the state, which led the state to unsuccessfully sue the federal government for additional remuneration. The Supreme Court ruled that the dispute between Florida -- along with other states heavily impacted by immigration -- and the federal government is a political issue that must be settled by Congress, which is responsible for fashioning the nation's immigration laws.

PUBLIC OPINION POLL DATA
According to a Sun-Sentinel poll of 807 registered voters reported in the Sept. 25, 2001 issue of the newspaper, 81 percent of the respondents agreed that the country should place more restrictions on immigration. The expansion of federal police powers to "indefinitely detain legal immigrants suspected of crimes during a national emergency," was supported by 70 percent of respondents. The poll showed that minorities favor restrictions by larger percentages than whites, and that women are slightely more favorable than men.

The Polling Company conducted a poll, for Negative Population Growth, September 23-27, 1999 (500 likely Florida voters, margin of error 4.4%). The findings were:

• Nearly 60 percent of Florida voters say adding another 5 million residents to Florida's population [the amount of increase now projected by 2025] is either an "extremely serious" or "serious" problem.
• Over 70 percent believe Florida's overcrowding and overpopulation is a major problem.
• 68 percent agee that "Florida would be better-off in the long term with a smaller population to maintain a sound economy and a healthy environment."
• A similar number want immigration scaled back.

Refugee Settlement
Florida has received more than 100,000 refugees over the most recent six fiscal years (FY'96-'01) for permanent resettlement (16,775 in FY'01). This is an average of more than 16,700 refugees per year.

(Note: Cuban parolees missing from FY'97 data.)

Under the Office of Refugee Resettlement's (HHS) assistance funding for FY'02 $15,405,547 is available for refugee employment training and other services programs in Florida based on a three-year refugee settlement program covering 61,383 refugees (an average of $251 per refugee). This allocation does not include a larger share (55%) of funding programs for communities heavily affected by recent Cuban and Haitian entrants, communities with refugees whose cultural differences make assimilation especially difficult, communities impacted by federal welfare reform changes, educational support to schools with significant refugee students, and discretionary grants.

IMMIGRANT CHILDREN
In 2000 nearly three-tenths of all of Florida's children are either foreign born or the child of an immigrant. Seven percent are first-generation immigrants (foreign born) and 21 percent are second-generation (a child of an immigrant).
(Source: "Check Points," The Urban Inst. Sept. 2, 2000)

STATE CONGRESSIONAL VOTING RECORD REPORT CARD
You can view how your representatives in Congress voted regarding immigration issues at http://grades.betterimmigration.com/delegation.php3?District=FL.

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