There are clubs whose memberships ought not to grow. That of
countries with 1 billion or more population is certainly among
them. Even China and India are two too many.
Yet the just-released year 2000 U.S. Census total shows us racing
pell-mell to this dubious goal. At 281 million, we have gained
nearly 33 million since 1990 - and 81 million since 1970, year
of the first Earth Day. Pennsylvania, one of the slowest-growth
states, nonetheless gained 400,000 people. This betokens a continued
upward trend.
A year ago, the Census Bureau released a new set of population
projections to the year 2100. With roughly unchanging immigration
and fertility policies, the bureau projected a year 2100 population
of 571 million. More generous immigration policies and higher
fertility will deliver us to 1.2 billion. Most disconcerting is
that we have exceeded even the highest projections of a year 2000
level of 275 million.
The world should be dismayed at the census results. Barely 18
months ago at the July 1999 U.N. conference on population, 179
nations - including the United States - agreed on a plan to curb
world population growth. Leaders of 69 nations (including China
but excluding the United States) signed a statement recognizing
"the worldwide necessity to achieve population stabilization
and for each country to adopt the necessary policies and programs
to do so, consistent with its own culture and aspirations."
What global problems are made easier to resolve by more Americans?
Already, with only 5 percent of the world population, we contribute
25 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, aggravating global warming.
University of British Columbia urban planner William Rees and
Mathis Wackernagel of Redefining Progress, a think tank on sustainability,
describe an "ecological footprint" that measures human
impact on nature. It is the land equivalent required to regenerate
the renewable resources each person consumes and recycle the waste
products produced. Conservatively calculated, the U.S. footprint
(the world's largest) is 24 acres per person, the United Kingdom's
and Germany's are 11, and China's is 4. The world average is 5.
Humankind as a whole consumes 2 1/2 times what the world produces;
hence the loss of habitat and species. We Americans are a net
importer of resources, indicated by an ecological deficit of 10
acres per person. The Americans added just since 1990 represent
an increased ecological load of 825 million acres; those since
1970 have consumed nearly two billion acres.
How far we have diverged from the population stabilization path
urged on Congress in 1972 by the Commission on Population Growth
and the American Future! The commission concluded it could identify
no benefit to adding to our then-200 million. Neither our environment
nor the quality of life cherished by Americans would survive a
significant population increase.
To judge from the behavior of our elected officials, our culture
and aspirations continue to reflect a "bigger is better"
boosterism. Yet a cursory glance at a week's news reveals how
population increase has triggered or exacerbated our problems.
Consider its impact on spiraling housing prices, endless sprawl,
traffic congestion and looming water and power shortages as we
drain our aquifers dry and become more vulnerable to hydroelectric
power shortfalls in years of low rainfall. Consider the difference
had Congress put us on the path to stabilization about 30 years
ago.
Americans are demographically unschooled. Few comprehend how quickly
numbers mount and how long it takes to slow population growth
once a country resolves to do so.
Just as the Congressional Budget Office calculates the monetary
effects of proposed legislation, a parallel office should calculate
the demographic costs of proposed legislation. This would force
our legislators to link individual legislation with long-term
consequences. A "Population Impact Statement" could
chart a demographic "thermometer" showing movement from
the estimated sustainable ceiling of 150 million.
We are now less than two doubling times from the billion-plus
club. How many others are as scared as I am?